## Description

1. There are three (and only three) paths through a network (project), each with a probability of completion in less than 24 months as indicated:

a. S-a-b-F P1(<24) = .95

b. S- d-e-F P2(<24) = .85

c. S- g-h-F P3(<24) = .90

If the tasks are independent, what is the probability of the network being completed within 24 months? Note: S is the start node, F is the finish node.

2. You have been assigned to estimate the cost of installing fiber optic cable in a country. Fortunately, you have done a number of similar projects in this area in the past and you have accumulated the following parametric cost estimates based on this experience:

a. S-a-b-F P1(<24) = .95

b. S- d-e-F P2(<24) = .85

c. S- g-h-F P3(<24) = .90

If the tasks are independent, what is the probability of the network being completed within 24 months? Note: S is the start node, F is the finish node.

2. You have been assigned to estimate the cost of installing fiber optic cable in a country. Fortunately, you have done a number of similar projects in this area in the past and you have accumulated the following parametric cost estimates based on this experience:

Mobilization/demobilization Cost = $10,000

Buried cable construction:

Cost per kilometer = $10,000 Sand

Cost per kilometer = $17,500 Sand & Clay

Cost per 100 meters = $ 5,500 Rock

Overhead cable installation:

Cost per kilometer = $ 7,500

Cost per Road Crossing = $12,500

Cost per pipeline Crossing = $ 5,000

The scope of the new project is as follows:

Predominately sand 150 km

Predominately sand & clay 100 km

Rock 500 meters

overhead XXXXXcrossings 3

pipeline crossings 5

Estimate the cost of construction for this project. Assume the estimates are fully loaded, ie they include labor, materials, applicable indirect costs such as overhead, etc. Must show your work.

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